Your monthly UK housing market update. Including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
The UK housing market continues to show its resilience, with prices steadily climbing. Over the year to August 2024, sold prices rose by 2.8%, up from last year’s 1.8%. The average home now costs £293,000, marking an increase of £8,000 compared with last year.
Breaking it down regionally, England’s average stands at £310,000 (up 2.3%), while Wales hit £223,000 (up 3.5%), and Scotland experienced a solid 5.4% rise to £200,000. Northern Ireland leads the charge with an impressive 6.4% jump, averaging £185,000.
Month-to-month growth has slowed, with a modest 0.5% increase from July to August. Despite this, the number of transactions remains strong, with around 90,000 sales in August – an increase of 5.4% compared to last year. Mortgage approvals also rose, reaching 64,900 in August, their highest level since August 2022.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
The average price of properties hitting the market in October nudged-up by 0.3%, reaching £371,958. While any increase is usually cause for celebration, this rise is shy of the typical 1.3% jump expected in October.
So why the slowdown? Buyer choice is booming, with more options than we’ve seen in a decade. With more properties to consider, buyers are seizing the opportunity to negotiate, keeping prices in check.
But this also means agreed sales are up a whopping 29% compared with last year – an encouraging sign the market is bouncing back strong. Interest is buzzing, with new inquiries to agents up 17%.
However, the influx of new listings (12% higher than last year) means properties take longer to sell. This is particularly true for higher-end homes, where competition is fierce. It’s a buyers’ market, so sellers must price competitively while affordability is stretched and choice is high.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
September’s RICS survey brings more encouraging news, as buyer demand and market activity pick up steam. The net balance of new buyer inquiries sits at +14%, reflecting steady interest. Agreed sales are also positive, with a net balance of +5%. Both these readings are largely unchanged from the previous month.
Looking ahead, surveyors are optimistic. +23% of respondents anticipate an uptick in sales over the next three months. This jumps even higher to +44% at the twelve-month horizon. New listings are on the rise as well, with a net balance of +22% (up from +9% last month), indicating a healthy influx of properties hitting the market.
On the pricing front, a net balance of +11%, signals a welcome return to growth, up from zero and -16% in August and July respectively. Positive price expectations further rise to +12% and +54% at three and twelve months – the strongest returns since April 2022.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
The housing market is navigating significant changes as it adjusts to the mortgage rate shifts we’ve seen over the last two years. However, rises in sales activity point to growing confidence among buyers and sellers, fueled by increasing incomes and mortgage rates around 4%.
Looking ahead, Zoopla predicts that mortgage rates will settle between 4% and 4.5% through 2025. This means wage growth will be key in making homes more affordable and enhancing purchasing power, keeping price increases modest. As such, a 2% rise in property values is expected for 2024, with total sales reaching about 1.1 million.
Since the housing market is closely tied to the overall economy, Zoopla hopes the upcoming Autumn Budget will spark economic growth, raise incomes, and drive much-needed investment in housing development.
Express Index
For a full, comprehensive breakdown of current property market activity. Visit our Express Index here
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