Your monthly UK housing market update. Including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
The UK housing market is seeing a bit of a slowdown, but prices are still creeping up. Over the year to July 2024, sold prices rose by 2.2% – slightly less than last year’s 2.7%. On average, homes now cost £290,000, which is £6,000 more than last year.
Breaking it down by region, England’s average is £306,000 (up 1.6%), Wales is at £218,000 (up 2.0%), and Scotland saw a 6% jump to £199,000. Northern Ireland had the biggest boost, with a 6.4% rise to £185,000.
Month-to-month growth slowed to 0.6% from June to July, down from 1.1% last year. The North East saw the biggest rise, while London prices dipped by 0.4%. Despite slower growth, transactions jumped by 6.7%, hitting 91,000 sales. Mortgage approvals also increased to 62,000, the highest number since September 2022.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Asking prices saw a bump of 0.8% in September, reaching an average of £370,759. This jump is twice the typical rise for this time of year, suggesting the market is picking up steam.
A big reason for this is the mix of falling mortgage rates, higher wages and more property choices – with 14% more new listings than last year. As a result, agreed sales were up 27% from last year, and buyer interest climbed by 15%.
While things are looking up, the market remains cautious. Even though stock levels are improving, the number of available homes per branch is still just 3% higher than 2019.
Homes currently take about 60 days to sell (slightly longer than last year) and although mortgage rates are falling, they’re still high compared to pre-2022 levels.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
August’s RICS survey brought good news, with housing market activity picking-up thanks to falling mortgage rates. Buyer demand increased, showing a net balance of +15%, which is the highest it’s been since October 2021. Sales also improved, with agreed sales showing a net balance of +6%, up from -1% in July.
Surveyors are feeling optimistic, predicting a 37% jump in sales over the next three months and a 45% increase over the coming year. New listings and appraisals also saw positive returns, with a +7% and +23% rise, respectively.
House prices have finally returned positive, with a small net balance of +1%. Most areas are seeing flat or modest growth, but Wales and the South East are lagging a bit behind.
Looking ahead, the near-term outlook is bright. +14% of participants expect prices will rise over the next few months and +50% anticipate growth within a year.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
As we move into autumn, the housing market has found its feet amid continued high borrowing costs. While price growth remains subdued, sales are starting to recover. The prospect of lower mortgage rates is attracting potential buyers, with some lenders now offering rates below 4%.
That said, future interest rates remain uncertain given global events. Current fixed mortgage rates reflect expectations of a slight downward trend over the next 2-5 years, settling in the high 3% to low 4% range by 2025. This should ease borrowing costs a bit and improve affordability for homebuyers.
While the outlook has improved compared to last year, sellers should remain realistic about pricing for a quick sale. Overall, the market is showing signs of optimism, but a careful approach will be key for both buyers and sellers in the months ahead.
Express Index
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