Your monthly UK housing market update. Including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
The UK housing market shows mixed signals as we head into the latter part of 2024. According to the latest data from HM Land Registry, sold prices saw a modest increase of 2.9% over the 12 months to September 2024, a slight uptick from the previous month’s 2.7%.
The average sold price in September reached £292,000, £8,000 higher than the previous year. However, there are signs of cooling, with a small dip of 0.3% from August to September.
Northern Ireland saw the strongest growth, with a 6.2% rise. In England, the North East stands out at 6.5%, while London experienced a decline of 0.5%.
Importantly, the number of property transactions was up by 8.9% year-on-year. Mortgage approvals also reached their highest level since August 2022 (with 65,600 approved loans over September 2024) – suggesting there’s still plenty of activity in the market.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Rightmove reports a drop in asking prices over November, down by 1.4% to £366,592. This is the second consecutive month of larger-than-usual price drops. However, this seasonal dip is somewhat expected as we head into Christmas. It doesn’t overshadow the overall positives compared to last year.
Rightmove predicts a 4% increase in asking prices for 2025, driven by reductions in mortgage rates and improving buyer affordability. This forecast is the most optimistic since 2021.
Interestingly, the number of sales agreed is 26% ahead of the same period last year. The volume of new listings also increased by 6%. Recent Bank Rate cuts have reignited buyer activity, leading to a bounce-back in demand – now 23% ahead of last year.
As 2025 approaches, the housing market is expected to remain active, with a final rush before the March Stamp Duty deadline. Despite the optimism, sellers still need to be strategic with asking prices as buyers grapple with affordability.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
According to the latest RICS Residential Survey from October 2024, the housing market experienced steady improvement.
Surveyors report rising sales and an increase in buyer demand, with positive net balances in most metrics. New instructions and buyer enquiries remain up (+14% and +12% respectively), marking the fourth consecutive month of growth. Similarly, agreed sales showed a modest increase (+9%), continuing the positive trend for the third month in a row.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautious but positive, with 36% of respondents expecting further increases in sales over the next year. House prices, too, are expected to continue their gradual rise (with a net balance of +16%), especially in Northern Ireland, Scotland and the North East.
However, concerns about rising bond yields could impact lending conditions – possibly dampening the pace of growth in the coming months.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
Despite two years of higher borrowing costs, Zoopla notes the housing market is remarkably resilient.
Looking to 2025, Zoopla predicts house prices will rise by 2.5%, with sales volumes reaching 1.15 million (up 5% from this year). While southern England may see slower price growth than the rest of the UK, the overall outlook is positive. Continued income growth and mortgage rates returning to 4% have improved affordability.
First-time buyers will remain a key group in the market. But existing homeowners looking to move are still facing affordability challenges. Many are considering homes further from city centres to find better value for money, which could be a key trend for 2025.
Express Index
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