Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
In the year to February 2024, sold prices fell by -0.2%. Although just in negative territory, this is a rise from -1.3% seen in the twelve months to January 2024.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, sold prices increased by 0.4% between January and February. Price inflation was highest in the North East (up by 2.9% in the twelve months to February). As usual, London had the slowest market, with prices dropping by -4.8%.
The Bank of England’s Agents Summary reported gradual market improvements, mainly driven by easing mortgage rates. Indeed, the number of residential transactions rose by 1.2% between January and February 2024 – increasing to 83,000. It’s good news, but still 5.6% behind the same time last year.
Mortgage approvals (a strong indication of future borrowing) also rose slightly. They increased by 7.6%, from 56,100 in January to 60,400 in February.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Average asking prices rose by 1.1% over April to reach £372,324. Compared to recent months, it’s a substantial increase – but roughly as expected this time of year.
This means prices are now just £570 below the May 2023 record of £372,894. Top-of-the-ladder homes are a big factor behind these rises, outperforming the rest of the market.
Overall, the number of agreed sales and new sellers were up on the same time last year (rising by 13% and 12% respectively). This compares with 20% and 18% for agreed sales and new sellers of top-of-the-ladder homes.
In fact, 28 March saw the highest number of new sellers in a single day so far in 2024. It was the third busiest day since August 2020 (only behind Boxing Day 2022 and 2023!).
Despite all this positivity, agents warn that high mortgage rates are still stretching buyer affordability. As a result, buyers remain price sensitive and activity in mortgage-dependent sectors (such as first-time buyer properties) remains slow.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
RICS survey participants report improved sales volumes alongside a small rise in buyer enquiries and new listings.
+8% of respondents noted an increase in buyer demand over March – the most positive figure since February 2022. Despite this, agreed sales are still in negative territory at -5%.
Even so, +13% of survey participants see sales volumes increasing over the next few months. This rises to a solid +46% at the twelve month horizon.
New listings and appraisals are also slowly improving, with a net balance of +13% and +21% respectively. This is the third consecutive month new appraisals are in positive territory – having remained negative for the whole of 2023.
Even with increased market activity, prices were relatively stable over March. The net balance of -4% showed a recovering market, much improved from the September 2023 low of -67%. +38% of participants predict further growth over the coming months.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
Zoopla predicts that house prices will continue to firm over the rest of the year. But they don’t expect that inflation will start speeding-up.
Current trends of modest rises over most of the UK (but falls in the South of England and the East Midlands) are likely to stay.
Indeed, the combination of high mortgage rates, reduced incomes and cost of living pressures mean that at least 95% of homes in the South and 93% in the East Midlands are now in local markets with price falls. This compares with 64% across the rest of the country – much lower than the 82% seen in October 2023.
This outlook largely depends on interest rates falling slightly, which will keep mortgage rates relatively affordable. Zoopla argues that continued price stability is the most important factor for the market right now, creating a solid foundation for continued sales growth.
Express Index
For a full, comprehensive breakdown of current property market activity. Visit our Express Index here
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