Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
In the year to April 2024, sold prices increased by 1.1%. This is slightly up from the 0.9% seen in the year to March.
Prices increased most in the North West, rising by 3.8% in the twelve months to April 2024. At the other end of the scale, London saw falls of about the same amount (-3.9%).
Across the country as a whole, the Bank of England’s Agents Summary expects prices will remain stable over the year ahead. Recent reductions in mortgage rates are supporting demand. Indeed, there were 90,000 residential transactions in April 2024 – 9.8% more than last year.
Reflecting this largely stable picture, mortgage approvals (a good indicator for future borrowing) stayed pretty much flat. They only decreased by -0.3%, from 61,300 in March to 61,100 in April.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Average asking prices dropped by -£21 over June, reaching £375,110. This follows standard patterns this time of year, with growth dropping off after record highs in May.
Even with a general election looming, the market maintained momentum. Agreed sales and new buyer enquiries remained steady (+6% and +5% up on last year), with the vast majority of movers continuing their plans.
The only exception is sellers at the top-end of the market. These “would-be” sellers appear to be hedging their bets, waiting to see what the month ahead brings. Fresh five-bedroom-plus properties are down by -3% on the previous year.
While mortgage rates have improved from their July 2023 peak (at 6.11%), they remain stubbornly high. The average five-year deal is still around 5%. However, if the recent Bank of England base rate cuts lead to falling mortgage rates, Rightmove predicts a positive impact on the market as a whole.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
In the latest RICS UK Residential Survey, participants describe faltering buyer demand. New buyer enquiries came in at -8% over May, down from -1% the previous month. This was alongside a generally slowing market, with agreed sales at -13% for May.
House prices also slipped into negative territory over May, with a steep fall to -17%. This was the most negative return since January 2024. There is positivity for the year ahead though, with +41% expecting a return to growth.
In the same vein, near-term sales expectations point to recovery. Participants expect increased sales over the next few months, with a net balance of +6%. The outlook for sales volumes over the year ahead is even more positive, rising from +33% to +43%.
This positivity is supported by a steady flow of instructions, with new listings at +16% over May. 17% of respondents also report the number of market appraisals is higher than the same time last year.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
Looking ahead, Zoopla notes the short-term outlook for sales depends on interest rates and mortgage rates. If the Bank of England base rate falls over the summer and autumn, this will boost sales numbers and market activity – even if changes to fixed rate mortgages are comparatively small.
As things stand, Zoopla expects mortgage rates to stay in the region of 4% to 4.5% as we move into 2025. This should support sales volumes as well as continued modest price increases, similar to what we’ve seen during 2024.
Over 2025, the South of England is likely to continue underperforming compared to the rest of the country. As house prices realign with incomes, income growth will be the most important factor supporting sales and demand for the year ahead.
Express Index
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