Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
Recent data shows a nice uptick in house prices. In the year leading up to May 2024, sold prices have gone up by 2.2%, which is a bump from the 1.3% increase we saw last month.
If we look at the numbers from April to May, there’s a non-seasonally adjusted rise of 1.2%, much higher than the 0.2% from the same time last year. Yorkshire and the Humber are leading the charge with a 3.9% price increase, while London’s just creeping up by 0.2%.
Overall, prices across the UK are expected to stay fairly steady. With mortgage rates slowly coming down, there’s some good news for potential buyers. Reflecting this, property transactions were up by 17.2% in May compared with the same time last year, hitting 91,000.
However, there was a bit of a dip in mortgage approvals, down from 60,800 in April to 60,000 in May.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Average asking prices dipped slightly by -0.4% in July, landing at £373,493. This drop is a bit bigger than usual, likely due to distractions like the Euro football, the General Election, the Paris Olympics, and the usual summer holiday buzz.
With high mortgage rates also challenging buyers, it’s surprising we haven’t seen a larger decrease in prices. They’ve actually stayed pretty stable, with a slight 0.4% increase over last year.
Interestingly, new sellers and agreed sales are both up, by 3% and 15% respectively, compared to last year. This shows that despite the recent political shifts, serious movers aren’t being put off.
However, demand in the first-time buyer sector has dropped by -2%. These buyers (who often rely heavily on mortgages) seem to be holding off, possibly waiting for potential rate cuts from the Bank of England to make homes more affordable.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
Sentiment among chartered surveyors is mixed, but leaning towards cautious optimism.
For June 2024, they reported a slight drop in buyer demand and newly agreed sales, both at -7%. New instructions also slipped into negative territory, at -9%, after six months of positive readings. The market’s mood remains downbeat, with house prices facing downward pressure at -17%.
But there’s a silver lining. Expectations for the near future are looking up. +20% believe sales volumes will pick up in the coming months, up from +10% last month. This is the most positive outlook since January 2022.
Short-term price expectations are also positive at +5%. They’re even more optimistic over the next year, with +41% of respondents predicting prices will go up.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
Looking ahead, Zoopla expects a slow but steady rise in house prices through the rest of 2024. This is especially in areas outside the south of England where affordability isn’t as tight. They also forecast around 1.1 million sales for the year, which is slightly below the twenty-year average.
The big question mark is around the timing of any Bank of England base rate cuts. While cuts might not drastically reduce mortgage rates, they could definitely boost market activity and confidence among buyers.
The new government’s plans to ramp up home building are good news for the future, though they likely won’t make a big splash in the market for another 12 to 18 months. For now, affordability remains a significant hurdle, especially for those on lower incomes looking to step onto the property ladder.
Express Index
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