Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
Average sold prices fell by -0.6% in the year to January 2024. This is a slight rise from the -2.2% seen up to December 2023.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by 0.5% between December and January. This compares with a fall of -1.1% the same time last year.
These figures reflect a gradually improving market. As reported by the Bank of England, this was mostly driven by easing mortgage rates.
In the year to January 2024, price inflation was highest in the North West, rising by 1%. At the other end of the scale, prices fell by -3.9% in London.
There were 82,000 property transactions over the month, which is -11.9% lower than last year. Transactions did increase by 1.9% between December and January however.
Mortgage approvals also rose from 51,500 in December to 55,200 in January – suggesting a brighter picture ahead.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Average asking prices rose by 1.5% over March 2024 to reach £368,118.
This reflects a positive start to the year, with buyer demand and sales numbers also up on the same period in 2023. The jump in asking prices is also much higher than historic averages of 1% – showing more than just spring optimism.
Even so, asking prices are still £4,776 behind the May 2023 peak. Rather than a surge in market activity, these numbers show a steady return to pre-pandemic levels.
Agreed sales are 13% up on the previous year, with top-of-the-ladder properties leading the way (up by 18%). Because of ongoing increased mortgage interest rates, activity is underpinned by those less sensitive to price rises.
Indeed, the average time to find a buyer has now reached 71 days. While buyers quickly snap up attractively priced homes, higher-priced properties are taking much longer to sell.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
Chartered Surveyors report improvements to buyer demand (+6%) and fresh listings (+21%). This result for new properties coming to market is the most positive reading since October 2020.
While the net balance for agreed sales remained in negative territory over February (-3%), it’s a drastic improvement on the average figure of -22% seen over the last year.
As a result of this increasingly optimistic picture, +42% of participants expect sales to rise over the year ahead.
Even so, uncertainty about the timings and speed of mortgage interest rates reductions has led to caution over the next few months. February near-term sales expectations fell to +6% from the previous month’s +12%.
Prices also stabilised over February, rising from a low of -67% (seen September 2023) to -10%. In even more good news, +36% of respondents predict a return to growth at the twelve month horizon.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
Zoopla predicts that household disposable incomes will rise over 2024, improving affordability. Indeed, their projections have incomes rising by 3.5% over the year, while house prices are likely to stay broadly the same.
With interest rate reductions expected by the second half of 2024, Zoopla expects a further raise for market sentiment as the year progresses. If mortgage rates fall within the 4% range, this should support sales volumes.
Even so, to maintain improved affordability – incomes will have to continue rising faster than prices. This is especially the case in southern England.
Zoopla expects the increased availability of new homes for sale should keep price rises in check.
With buyers remaining price-sensitive, sellers will still need to price realistically to take advantage of improved conditions and secure a quick sale.
Express Index
For a full, comprehensive breakdown of current property market activity. Visit our Express Index here
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