Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
Across the UK, sold prices decreased by -1.4% in the year to December 2023. This compares with a drop of -2.3% up to November 2023.
Although still in negative territory, these figures represent a slowly recovering market.
Over the twelve months to December 2023, prices rose in the North West of England (by 1.2%), while London saw the largest falls at -4.8%.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased by 0.1% between November and December. This small rise bodes well, compared with a fall of -0.8% in 2022.
The Bank of England’s summary also reported gradual improvement. Agents described higher market activity driven by falling mortgage rates. Indeed, mortgage approvals (a good sign for future borrowing) rose to 50,500 in December – up from 49,390 in November.
Even so, the number of property transactions over December 2023 was significantly lower than last year, falling by 17.8% to reach 80,420.
Average asking prices rose by 0.9% over February. Reaching a total of £362,839, this follows standard changes seen this time of year.
Interestingly though, average prices are also up by 0.1% compared with 2023. Although this doesn’t sound a lot, it follows six consecutive annual falls… showing a market finally picking-up momentum.
Compared with last year, agreed sales were up by 16% for the first six weeks of the year. With buyers clearly feeling more confident for 2024, it’s a promising sign.
Even so, buyers remain incredibly price-sensitive – something sellers hoping for a quick Spring sale should remember. On average, it now takes sixteen days longer to find a buyer than the same time last year, as buyers carefully consider their options.
In good news, plenty of new properties came to market in the first six weeks of 2024, up by 7% on last year. Buyer enquiries were also up by 7%, suggesting heightened market activity on its way.
Chartered Surveyors describe a widely recovering market. Buyer demand, sales volumes, new instructions and agreed sales are all moving out of negative territory.
Buyer demand was +7% in January, up from -3% the previous month (and the most positive reading since February 2022). Agreed sales volumes also edged higher, at +5%, up from -5%. Reflecting this new positivity, participants see sales rising even further to +14% and +44% at the three and twelve month horizons.
New instructions also rose to +11% in January, having remained firmly in negative territory for much of 2023.
As a result, price expectations have also improved, with a net balance of +18% of respondents predicting mild price increases over 2024. This is supported by expectations of mortgage interest rates easing (to a certain extent) during the rest of the year.
In Zoopla’s latest report, they predict that over 2024, sales are more likely to rise than house prices.
While there’s clear demand from movers of all kinds, the market is still adjusting to higher mortgage rates. With the knock-on hits to buyer power, budgets will remain stretched over the year to come.
As a result, sellers must price realistically to make the most of increased buyer interest. While mortgage rates might decrease slightly over 2024, this may not come until the second half of the year.
Agreed sales have steadily improved over the past few months, supported by more properties coming to market. As such, Zoopla predicts we’re on track for 10% more sales over 2024 than the previous year – bringing total sales to 1.1 million.
For a full, comprehensive breakdown of current property market activity. Visit our Express Index here
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