Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
As of February 2023, the annual percentage change for UK house prices was 5.5%.
This was down from 6.5% in the 12 months to January 2023, and represents a non-seasonally adjusted decrease of 1% between January and February. These figures compare with a decrease of just 0.1% during the same period 12 months ago – and were a major reason behind the slowing UK inflation rate in February.
Price rises were highest in the West Midlands (increasing by 8.6%), while London registered the slowest annual growth (just +2.9%) in the 12 months to February 2023.
In terms of completed sales, there was a total of 90,340 residential property sales during February (18.2% lower than the same time last year). This also represents a seasonally adjusted decrease of -4.1% between January and February 2023.
Even so, the amount of mortgage approvals did increase during February (rising from 39,600 to 43,500), the first monthly increase seen since August 2022.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Over April 2023, Rightmove report that asking prices rose by just 0.2%. This represents a modest increase of just £890 over the month, bringing asking prices to a total of £366,247.
The number of agreed sales is back on a par with the same period in 2019, although still 18% behind last year’s exceptional market. Combined with moderate price increases, it’s a promising return to more normal levels of market activity.
Intriguingly, first-time-buyer properties are leading this recovery, with sales 4% higher than March 2019. Indeed, these properties reached record average asking prices during April of £224,963. Even with higher mortgage costs (with average five-year fixed mortgage rates at 4.46%), demand remained exceptionally high. This was driven by the fiercely competitive rental market – a trend showing no sign of slowing.
At the other end of the market, second-stepper and top-of-the-ladder properties are still respectively 4% and 3% behind 2019 levels.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
In the March UK Residential Market Survey, Chartered Surveyors paint a weak market picture. Indicators on buyer demand, new listings, sales and house prices all remained in negative territory.
As such, a net balance of -29% of contributors reported falls in buyer demand over March. The net balance for completed sales similarly slipped to -31%. Fresh listings also fell over the month, from -4% in February to -6% in March.
Even with pressures on the supply of new homes, house prices also continued dipping, with a net balance of -43%. Going forward, these predictions remain downbeat and -24% of participants predict further price falls over the year ahead.
In some positive news, the 12 month view on sales volumes did improve slightly, coming in at +1%. Whilst this may seem minor, it’s actually the first time this measure’s been out of negative territory since March 2022.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
In their latest Market Outlook Report, Zoopla note the housing market is in much better shape at the end of the first quarter of 2023 than many predicted. Arguably, it’s returned to a more balanced picture than anytime in the last three years.
While the market has undergone a soft re-pricing process, buyers and sellers are still agreeing plenty of deals – underpinning strong sales activity. Encouragingly, Zoopla also expect transaction volumes to hold steady over the year. As a result, they maintain their prediction of 1 million transactions by the end of 2023.
As a note of caution though, with mortgage rates still 2 times higher than early last year, the most affordable markets will continue attracting the highest levels of demand and above average sales. As a result, sellers must ensure pricing aligns with buyers’ expectations to secure a quick sale.
Express Index
For a full, comprehensive breakdown of current property market activity. Visit our Express Index here
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