Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
In the government’s latest UK House Price Index, they report sold prices rose by 6.3% in the year to January 2023. This is a major drop from the last year’s trends when house prices rose by 10.2% over the year.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, UK house prices decreased by 1.1% between December 2022 and January 2023. Again, this compares with an increase of 1.7% the same time last year – showing a slow start to 2023.
Similarly, the number of property transactions was 96,650 for the month, representing a fall of 10.6% from the previous year, and a decrease of -2.6% (on a seasonally adjusted basis) between December and January 2023. Mortgage approvals also decreased by -2.2% between December and January. This is the fifth consecutive drop in five months, representing approvals at their lowest level since January 2009.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
Over March 2023, Rightmove saw average asking prices rise by 0.8% (£2,906) to a total of £365,357. This is slightly below the average monthly rise of 1% (seen during the last 20 years), showing continued pricing caution from sellers.
Asking prices for “top-of-the-ladder” properties rose by slightly more (+1.2%) and 1-2 bed first-time buyer homes increased by just 0.4%. Overall, these figures point to much more stable market than many anticipated during the turmoil of 2022.
Reflecting these moderate rises (and gradually decreasing concerns about affordability), sales of first-time buyer properties were just 4% behind the same period in the more “normal” market of 2019. While sales were still 18% behind last year’s rush, it’s a positive development. Indeed, average asking prices for 1-2 bed homes are now just £500 lower than their peak last year.
At the other end of the market, top-of-the-ladder and second-stepper properties are 10% and 13% behind the same period of 2019. This difference suggests some sellers may need to temper their price expectations to attract buyers and secure a sale.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
In the latest RICS UK Residential Survey, participants note generally downbeat trends. Even so, they also report several more positive developments…
Over February 2023, the net balance of new buyer enquiries rose from -45% the previous month to -29%. While this signals a decline in demand (the tenth consecutive monthly reading), it’s also the least negative result since July 2022.
Fresh listings also improved to -4% (compared with -12% in January) with market appraisals similarly increasing from -42% to -33%. Again, while these numbers are firmly in negative territory, they show a market that’s progressively stabilising. The net balance for pricing decreased slightly over February (from -46% to -48%), hinting at sellers continuing to price competitively.
As a result of the improvements in fresh listings and greater sensitivity on pricing, newly agreed sales also improved (from -36%) to -26%. At the twelve month horizon, the outlook is even better (if still just in negative territory!) at -8%.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
Similarly to Rightmove and RICS insights, Zoopla’s latest House Price Index describes a relatively stable and gradually improving market outlook.
They note the market is adjusting to higher mortgage rates much better than previously feared. While borrowing rates are unlikely to get much cheaper, there’s fierce competition among lenders – keeping deals attractive for buyers. Combined with low levels of house price growth (reflecting greater realism and sellers wishing to secure a quick sale), they believe 4% mortgage rates should remain manageable.
As a result, Zoopla maintain their positive outlook for a total of 1.1 million sales during 2023.
Express Index
For a full, comprehensive breakdown of current property market activity. Visit our Express Index here
Are you thinking of putting your home on the market?
We specialise in helping you get more for your property. Quicker, easier and with less stress.
You can call us any time on 0333 016 5458 where we can provide help, guidance and support.
Instant valuation – get a free 32-page instant valuation report here
Video appointment – book a free, no-obligation 30-minute advice meeting with one of our experts here
Ready to instruct us? – locate and sign your agreement here