Your monthly UK housing market update – including sold and asking prices, RICS surveyor sentiment and predictions for the year ahead.
HM Land Registry – Sold Prices
In the latest UK House Price Index, average sold prices decreased by -1.2% in the year to October 2023.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average prices fell by 0.7% between September and October 2023. This compares with a drop of just 0.2% during the same period in 2022.
The North East was one of the few regions bucking the trend (with an increase of 0.2%) while London lagged behind at -3.6%.
The Bank of England noted higher mortgage rates driving down demand and weakening market activity. Indeed, until rates significantly fall, activity is unlikely to pick up substantially.
Property transactions were a massive 20.5% lower in October than the same time last year. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, they also decreased by 2.5% between September and October 2023.
In good news though, mortgage approvals increased by 8.4% over the same period – suggesting improved market activity to come.
Rightmove – Asking Prices
In the December Rightmove Report, average asking prices fell by -1.9% (that’s -£6,966) to a total of £355,177.
While prices normally fall this time of year (as keen sellers try to attract Christmas buyers), the twenty-year average is only -1.5%. It shows an increasingly buyer-led market with high mortgage rates hampering affordability.
As we move into 2024 though, Rightmove predicts more market stability. With gradually falling mortgage rates, they note family movers returning to the market having previously put plans on hold. Agreed sales this year are now just 13% behind 2022’s frenetic activity.
Regionally, the North West saw asking prices increase by 1.5% (compared with last year). The South East witnessed the largest falls at -3.7% – showing the need for sellers to pay attention and price for local property market trends.
Given continued affordability challenges, Rightmove predicts asking prices will continue falling over 2024, dropping by -1%.
RICS – Chartered Surveyor Sentiment Survey
The November RICS Survey points towards improving market activity supported by recent falls in mortgage rates.
Given rates have only marginally improved, near-term sales expectations are only just positive at +6% for November. There’s a cautious case for optimism though, with twelve month sales predictions rising to an upbeat +24%.
All other metrics remain in negative territory, albeit less so. New buyer enquiries came in at -14% over November. Although this doesn’t seem cause for celebration, it’s actually the least negative reading since April 2022.
Market activity is also slowly improving, with agreed sales up to -11% (from -23% the previous month). The supply of new instructions remained steady at -5%, while price predictions rose from -61% in October to -43% in November. This suggests pricing declines are easing, leading to relatively stable long-term expectations.
Indeed, price expectations are now just -10% at the twelve month horizon, up from October’s pessimistic -43%.
Zoopla – Housing Market Outlook
In Zoopla’s outlook for 2024, they predict that recently steady sales momentum is set to remain into the new year.
Zoopla expects the normal rebound over January to March, as buyers and sellers who’d delayed moves due to high mortgage rates return to the market.
Even with rates edging lower, affordability is still a major concern. Mortgage rates remain historically high, with many households yet to move off cheaper deals agreed before September 2022’s mini-budget.
Although prices fell over 2023, these drops were only modest. As a result, Zoopla estimates that housing remains overvalued by around 10-15%. They predict continued pricing correction over 2024, anticipating falls of -2%.
Sales should remain steady over the year through, holding at 1 million completions.
Express Index
For a full, comprehensive breakdown of current property market activity. Visit our Express Index here
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